'It is looking like the anti-Lambeth, a first conference for the conservative breakaway communion.'

Steve Tomkins wonders what the future holds for the Church of England

Is this it for the C of E?

280 conservative bishops are meeting in Jerusalem this week to discuss breaking with Canterbury and to “rescue what is left of the Church from the error of the apostates”, in the words of Peter Akinola, Archbishop of Nigeria.

200 of them will, reportedly, not be coming to the Lambeth Conference in July.

So it is looking like the anti-Lambeth, a first conference for the conservative breakaway communion.

What will come of it? Predicting the future is a mug’s game, especially as by the time you read this at least some of the future will already have happened. But a job’s a job, and my boiler needs fixing.

Time

First, I doubt we’ll see any radical developments, any actual splitting, at this conference. A week is not a long time in churchmanship.

After all, the dream scenario for the conservatives is for Canterbury to try to avoid the split by cracking down on the liberals in the US and Canada, so they should at least wait until Lambeth to see if that happens.

Secondly, while full schism is a real possibility, many conservatives would prefer the whole Anglican communion to be diluted rather than split.

If Anglicanism was reorganised into a looser affiliation of national churches, it might continue to contain both Nigeria and Washington.

This week is a test of strength for the conservatives. How many bishops will turn up? How committed will they be to Akinola’s uncompromising stance? These questions will determine how ready the conference leaders are to make a break.

If there is a split is will hardly be the first time. Methodists, Baptists, Presbyterians and Congregationalists all started with a break from the Anglican church. The difference is that in this case both sides will still call themselves Anglicans.

Split

If the split comes, what will it look like? Compared to the 280 bishops at Jerusalem, 600 are expected at Lambeth, suggesting that as many as one in three dioceses could secede from the communion. The majority are in Africa and North America.

The senior Archbishop of the breakaway communion would presumably be Akinola.

There would be a distinct north-south divide, embraced by Akinola when he talked of breaking away from the spiritual slavery of liberal Anglicanism just as they had escaped from actual slavery and colonialism.

Only three English bishops, out of 70-odd, are thought to be attending, but one being the senior figure of Nazir-Ali, the Bishop of Rochester, who has confirmed he will boycott Lambeth, it seems that we have a leader for any British breakaway.

Whether the leader will have followers remains to be seen.